AXNT20 KNHC 092346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N22W 2N38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 4W-8W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN SOUTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. DRY AIR IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN VENEZUELA IS LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH THE MAYAGUANA PASSAGE TO 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE WEST...A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 28N70W TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS DRIER THAN ITS ERN COUNTERPART WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N39W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N40W IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 21N. IN THE FAR NE ATLC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N15W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY INLAND ACROSS SRN MOROCCO THIS EVENING. $$ HUFFMAN
|
| |
