New poll: Hales, Smith have lead in Portland mayoral race - KPTV - FOX 12

New poll says Hales, Smith have lead in Portland mayoral race

Updated: May 14, 2012 12:00 PM
PORTLAND, OR (KPTV) -

A new FOX 12-OPB poll from DHM Research shows a bit of separation between Portland's three mayoral candidates, with former city commissioner Charlie Hales out in front.

In the poll, which was conducted May 10-12 and surveyed 500 likely voters, 32 percent said they would vote for Hales, 24 percent said they would vote for Jefferson Smith and 16 percent said they would vote for Eileen Brady. The margin of error falls within +/- 2.6 percent and +/- 4.4 percent.

Hales' and Smith's numbers were an increase from the last FOX 12-OPB poll, while Brady saw a seven-point drop.

Candidate

Apr. ‘12

May ‘12

Total Charlie Hales

25%

32%

  Charlie Hales

23%

29%

  Lean Hales

2%

3%

Total Eileen Brady

23%

16%

  Eileen Brady

20%

15%

  Lean Brady

3%

1%

Total Jefferson Smith

20%

24%

  Jefferson Smith

18%

21%

  Lean Smith

2%

2%

Other

6%

8%

Undecided

28%

21%

Oregon's primary election is Tuesday. Because it's highly unlikely that one candidate will get more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates are expected to advance to a runoff in the fall.

In another tightly contested race for Portland's City Council, there wasn't much change in the numbers for Mary Nolan and current city commissioner Amanda Fritz.

Candidate

Apr. ‘12

May ‘12

Total Bruce Altizer 

1%

1%

  Bruce Altizer

1%

1%

  Lean Altizer

0%

1%

Total Mary Nolan 

25%

25%

  Mary Nolan

21%

23%

  Lean Nolan

4%

2%

Total Teressa Raiford 

1%

2%

  Teressa Raiford

1%

1%

  Lean Raiford

1%

0%

Total Amanda Fritz 

32%

33%

  Amanda Fritz

25%

29%

  Lean Fritz

7%

4%

Total David Gwyther

1%

2%

  David Gwyther

1%

1%

  Lean Gwyther

0%

0%

Undecided

40%

38%


The new poll also measured voters' impressions of President Barack Obama after he became the first president to declare his unequivocal support for gay marriage.

Response Category

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Neutral

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Don't know

1.    John Kitzhaber

May ‘12

34%

34%

12%

6%

8%

7%

Apr. ‘12

33%

34%

13%

8%

7%

6%

2.    Eileen Brady

May ‘12

10%

26%

19%

13%

5%

27%

Apr. ‘12

8%

22%

23%

7%

4%

37%

3.    Barack Obama

May ‘12

54%

19%

7%

5%

12%

3%

Apr. ‘12

45%

28%

8%

5%

14%

1%

4.    Charlie Hales

May ‘12

16%

30%

16%

8%

4%

26%

Apr. ‘12

12%

26%

21%

6%

3%

32%

5.    Amanda Fritz

May ‘12

12%

25%

19%

10%

8%

26%

Apr. ‘12

9%

25%

21%

9%

4%

33%

6.    Jefferson Smith

May ‘12

16%

27%

22%

6%

4%

26%

Apr. ‘12

9%

19%

23%

5%

2%

43%

7.    Mary Nolan

May ‘12

8%

19%

22%

7%

2%

42%

Apr. ‘12

7%

14%

19%

4%

2%

55%

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