Special Report: Your Severe Weather Outlook - KPTV - FOX 12

Special Report: Your Severe Weather Outlook

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Robert predicting the position of the jet stream Robert predicting the position of the jet stream
(Toledo News Now) -

The change from winter to summer had been coming along slowly this year 2014, even in the deep south. That is until this week with numerous deadly tornadoes in the south. What can we expect in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan?

We have just come through one of the most brutal winters in history.

40 inches of snow in January set a record! 86 inches of snow for the winter set a record! Temperatures below zero degrees 22 times! That just hurts. People on the street couldn't even answer what summer will be like. Some said they think we will skip spring and go straight to heat, others said it's going to be mild because one extreme season was enough.

The plain truth is it is just not that simple. We cannot predict spring or summer based on the previous winter. Even the groundhog got that one wrong this year!

The way we do it is to predict the position of the jet stream. The jet stream moves weather systems across the country. During the winter the polar jet positions itself across the southern United States. This transition period, spring, is when we get our most dangerous storms. This happens when warm, moist air collides with dry air, steered into Ohio by the jet stream. In northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan we average about 8 tornados per year.

April and May is when we get our strongest storms. The Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1965 killed 18 people in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan. To this day all tornadic weather in the Toledo area is measured against what happened that Sunday.

May 10, 1973 a multiple vortex F4 tornado swept across Seneca and Huron counties killing 5 people in Willard, Ohio. This storm would be overshadowed the following year by the worst storm in Ohio history: the Xenia tornado. June is the month a tornado is most likely, never more apparent than on June 5, 2010. 7 people died when an EF4 tornado struck Lake Township, Moline and Millbury.

This year there are no signs the jet stream will do anything out of the ordinary. In fact the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. No worries. In the Stormtrack Weather Center we are able to predict minor shifts in the jet stream days in advance. This allows us to pinpoint the most destructive storms and keep you and your family safe.

Text "FORECAST" to 41911 to get twice-a-day weather reports on your mobile phone. 

Get your StormTrack forecast, see live StormTrack 11 Doppler, view interactive radar, and more - all on our app.

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Related links:

-What do county and city snow emergencies mean?

-Watch vs. Warning

 -StormTrack weather blog

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