New poll shows Hillary Clinton topping Sanders, Trump in Oregon - KPTV - FOX 12

New poll shows Hillary Clinton topping Sanders, Trump in Oregon

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A new voter survey conducted for Fox 12 and Oregon Public Broadcasting shows that with a week left before the Oregon primary voters are leaning to Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders on the Democratic ticket.

According to the results from DHM Research, if the primary vote tallies match typical numbers, Clinton could beat Sanders by 15 percent.

Though gender seems to play little role in voter preference, voters are split by age when it comes to candidate support. In voters older than 45, Clinton sees twice the support of Sanders, but in those younger than 45, the Vermont senator has three times the support as the former secretary of state.

Clinton is also polling stronger with those who vote more frequently, as well as those who have already returned their ballots.

The research also looked at a "high turnout" model, where younger voters voted at similar rates to older voters and new and infrequent voters went to the polls at historic levels, and while Sanders closed the gap, Clinton still is polling ahead 45 percent to 38 percent.

Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump clearly tops the GOP race, with 45 percent of Republicans polled saying they will support the front-runner.

Senator Ted Cruz and Governor John Kasich are both still on Oregon ballots, and even though both suspended their campaigns last week before the poll was taken, each candidate picked up 14 percent support from Republican voters.

Looking ahead to the probable showdown in November, Oregon voters are polling toward Clinton 43 percent to 32 percent over Trump.

Clinton pulls more support from party-faithful, with 79 percent of Democrats supporting her while Trump only sees 66 percent from Republicans.

Women are almost twice as likely to vote for Clinton while men are fairly evenly split between the candidates.

Though the vote is split between the two front runners across most other age groups, voters over 65 prefer Clinton over Trump by more than 15 percent.

When asked why they planned on voting for their choice, Clinton voters tended to show more support for their candidate than opposition for her opponent. Among those who said they were voting Trump, more people said their choice was based on opposing Clinton than supporting their candidate. 

Why vote for Clinton

Why vote for Trump

The biggest unknown facing the Clinton campaign in both the primary and general elections is in non-affiliated voters.

Between Jan. 1 and April 26, 140,000 Oregon voters changed their party affiliation, with 90,000 switching to Democrat. This could lead to unexpected results in the upcoming primary.

In November, these voters could look outside the two main party nominees, with 18 percent of non-affiliated voters, and 19 percent of voters under 30 years old, saying they would vote for someone other than Trump or Clinton.

Survey by DHM Research 

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