FOX 12-DHM Poll: Clinton leads Trump in Oregon; Measure 97 trend - KPTV - FOX 12

FOX 12-DHM Poll: Clinton leads Trump in Oregon; Measure 97 trends toward defeat

Posted: Updated: Nov 01, 2016 08:16 AM
(KPTV) -

Hillary Clinton is in a strong position to win Oregon's seven electoral votes for president with a seven-point lead over Donald Trump, according to a new FOX 12-DHM Research Poll.

The poll, conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. of Portland, shows Clinton with a 41 percent to 34 percent lead over Trump with one week to go before the election.

Clinton's lead is about average for presidential elections in the state going back to 2000. However, it is considerably lower than President Barack Obama's 12-point victory in 2012 and 16-point victory in 2008.

DHM Research reports that while Trump is unlikely to win Oregon, the race could tighten in the closing days.

In the survey, 65 percent of Republicans said they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 72 percent of Democrats who plan to vote for Clinton.

Trump leads among non-affiliated or other-party voters 37 percent to 32 percent. DHM Research reports the final margin could be closer than the latest survey suggests if Trump can persuade more reluctant Republicans to vote for him and the turnout among unaffiliated voters exceeds expectations.

Eleven percent of Oregon voters remain undecided in the race for president, as well, with another 3 percent saying they may skip the race altogether.

In the latest poll, 4 percent of respondents said they would vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, while 2 percent supported Jill Stein of the Pacific Green Party.

If the election were held today, I would vote for... Oct 24-29 Oct 6-13 Sept 2016
Donald Trump 34% 36% 25%
Hillary Clinton 41% 43% 48%
Gary Johnson 4% 7% 10%
Jill Stein 2% 5% 3%
Somebody else/ May skip race 8% 5% 10%
Don't know 11% 5% 15%

GOVERNOR

Gov. Kate Brown holds a 9-point lead over Republican Bud Pierce in the race for Oregon's governor, according to the FOX 12-DHM Research Poll.

The winner will serve out the remaining two years of former Gov. John Kitzhaber's term after he resigned in February 2015 and Brown succeed him.

A Republican has not been elected Oregon's governor since 1982. DHM Research analysts report that unless Pierce can stage a "remarkable comeback," a Democrat is once again likely to continue holding the office of governor.

Brown has a 42 percent to 33 percent lead over Pierce. 

If the election were held today, I would vote for... Oct 24-29 Oct 6-13
Kate Brown 42% 46%
Bud Pierce 33% 33%
James Foster 3% 3%
Cliff Thomson 4% 4%
Aaron Donald Auer 0% 1%
Somebody else/ May skip race 4% 1%
Don't know 15% 12%

MEASURE 97

Support for Measure 97 in Oregon has shifted to the point it is now trending toward defeat, according to the FOX 12-DHM Research Poll.

DHM Research has surveyed voters three times in the last two months regarding Measure 97. Support has fallen from 60 percent in early September, to 45 percent in early October and now sits at 40 percent. Opposition to the measure is at 53 percent. 

A majority of Democrats – 59 percent – remain supportive of the corporate tax measure, but their support is overwhelmed by Republican opposition at 79 percent. Non-affiliated and other voters are currently 57 percent in opposition of Measure 97.

DHM Research reports the downward trend is a sign that the measure is likely to fail.

If the election were held today, would likely is your support for Measure 97? Oct 24-29 Oct 6-13 Sept 2016
TOTAL YES 40% 45% 60%
Certain to vote yes 31% 30% 46%
Leaning toward voting yes 7% 12% 14%
Unsure – leaning yes 1% 2% -
TOTAL NO 53% 49% 30%
Unsure –leaning no 1% 1% -
Leaning toward voting no 7% 10% 7%
Certain to vote no 45% 38% 23%
Don't know 7% 7% 10%

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republican Dennis Richardson has an opportunity to break the streak of Democratic dominance in Oregon elections dating back to 2002.

The FOX 12-DHM Research Poll shows Richardson with a five-point lead over Democrat Brad Avakian, 32 percent to 27 percent.

Republicans have not won a statewide election in Oregon for 14 years.

Richardson has the advantage with non-affiliated and other voters at 30 percent to 22 percent. He is also picking up slightly more votes from Democrats at 12 percent compared to Avakian's 9 percent from Republicans.

DHM Research reports that for Avakian to win, he needs to persuade Democrats who are on the fence to vote for him. Right now, 32 percent of Democrats are undecided in this race, compared to 22 percent of Republicans.

If the election were held today, I would vote for... Oct 24-29 Oct 6-13
Dennis Richardson 32% 34%
Brad Avakian 27% 29%
Sharon L. Durbin 3% 3%
Paul Damian Wells 3% 4%
Alan Zundel 1% 2%
Michael Marsh 1% 3%
Somebody else/ May skip race 5% 2%
Don't know 28% 24%

Voters were split when asked about their thoughts on the direction the state of Oregon is going, but nearly unanimous in their intent to vote.

Is Oregon is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Response
Right direction 43%
Wrong track 41%
Don't know 16%

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election? Response
I have already turned in my ballot 35%
Absolutely certain to vote 55%
Very likely to vote 9%
Fifty-fifty to vote 1%

The FOX 12-DHM Research Poll was conducted by surveying 504 voters over the phone from Oct. 25-Oct. 29. A variety of quality control measures were used, including questionnaire pre-testing and validation.

The margin of error for this survey is 4.4 percent.

Copyright 2016 KPTV-KPDX Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved. 

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