Nice summer weather this week, but cooler with a shower chance for part of holiday weekend

Published: Jun. 30, 2022 at 7:58 PM PDT
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June is just about to wrap up this evening and we’re headed into July. Temperatures this month ended up a little WARMER than average, not cooler. The heat wave really balanced out the cool weekend temps. Actually that was the main feature…4 weekends of cool/wet weather with some pretty nice weather on many weekdays.

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Of course we haven’t seen rain now in 11 days, the longest dry stretch since early last September.

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Yes, it’s time to start watering your lawns even though it’s hard to believe that’s the case after one of the wettest springs on record. The “faucet” has suddenly just shut off. We ended up with about double our typical June rain, and 7th wettest June in Portland.

The heatwave last weekend turned out almost exactly as expected with mid-upper 90s for 3 consecutive days. We just barely squeaked in under 100 degrees last Sunday

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WHAT’S AHEAD?

The holiday weekend is just about here. Do you realize we haven’t seen measurable rain in 14 years on the 4th of July? In fact my kids (20 and 21) haven’t experienced a “wet Independence Day” yet! The last cool/showery holiday was back in 1999

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This week has been nice with temperatures running near normal; a steady onshore flow of cool marine air is keeping the weather from turning hot. But now an upper-level low pressure area (a disturbed area of weather high overhead) is heading down into the Pacific Northwest. It’ll be directly overhead late Sunday into early Monday.

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When that happens, temperatures cool and the chance for rain goes up. But this system seems a bit different; a bit more “moisture-starved” compared to recent setups. So I don’t think we’re talking a bit soaker west of the Cascades. In fact check out the rain forecast from the ECMWF and GEM models from now through Tuesday.

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The main effect over the holiday weekend will be a very strong onshore flow. Lots of clouds west of the Cascades with below normal temps, but not much rain. Maybe just sprinkles or a light shower here and there.

Are you are headed to the Cascades, Gorge, or Central/Eastern Oregon this weekend? Watch out for thunderstorms starting Saturday afternoon. An upper-level low offshore means southerly or southwesterly flow overhead. Straight southerly flow should bring showers and thunderstorms up along the Cascade crest Saturday night through Sunday morning. Of course those storms/showers would cruise right over the the top of the central/eastern Gorge during that time too. I think any thunder west of the Cascades is unlikely and we’ll be sitting under a thick marine layer during that time too. If you’re camping in the Cascades, I’m thinking a cooldown over the weekend too

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The coastline looks quite mellow this weekend, but with the thick marine layer it’ll be tough to find lots of sunshine.

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Later next week will be a battle between the very hot “4 Corners High” and cool weather offshore.

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We may end up in the perfect spot; enough onshore flow to keep the heat away, but not too much that would keep us mainly cloudy. We will see…enjoy the weekend!