Pleasant July weather pattern continues until further notice
Plus a slow fire season start...so far
It seems quite far back now that many of us were complaining about the rainy weather. I was talking about slug bait, no staining of the deck, and waiting to plant some of my veggies. Now, looking back, it’s obvious our seasonal (and normal) summer dry spell began on June 19th this year. We’ve only seen one wet day since that time...July 6th. This is about as normal as it gets folks! The remarkably reliable switch from “regularly wet” to “unusually dry” happened right on time. That also means it’s the slowest time of the year for meteorologists. July through September is quite boring for the forecasts around here. A good time to take vacation (I just did) and you’ll notice very few weather blog posts during this time. My family and I camped at both Trillium and Paulina lakes last weekend and early this week. I made it about 3/4 of the way around the Newberry Crater rim bike trail. Quite the view!
Temperatures are running just a bit above average for July, and June was near normal.
This summer is NOT turning into a repeat of those cool summers of 2010 and 2011. I was thinking it might happen after the excessively wet/cool April & May, but apparently not. This loop shows 500 millibar heights over the next 2 weeks.
Notice we have a weak upper-level trough (brings in cooler marine air) this weekend, then the hot upper level high over the Rockies pushes closer to us through the next 10 days or so. I see increasing orange/red that last week of the month. This is the ECMWF (European) model ensemble forecast; average of 51 ensemble members. The GFS and GEM models are similar through the next two weeks. This implies we have somewhat typical temperatures over the next week, then it MAY turn hotter as we head into the last week of July. Most important; there’s no sign of unusually cool upper-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest. And that means little or no rain. Notice the ensemble average total rain for the next 2 weeks is basically spots of marine drizzle. Less than .10″ for most models
To summarize: real summer weather (warm and dry) continues the next couple of weeks. But no sign of a heatwave for at least the next week.
This is good news for fire season 2022. The Pacific Northwest is at Level 1 Preparedness Level, a bit below average. Last year we went all the way to Level 5 by mid-July and stayed there for two months! You can check out all the previous years back to 2005 here: https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/content/products/intelligence/NW%20PL%20YTD%20&%20Historical%20Charts.pdf
There has only been one large fire in Oregon so far this season. That was 40,000 acres way over southeast of Baker City...mainly on range land.
I don’t see a setup for widespread thunderstorms over the next week, that’s also good news. The result will be fuels continuing to dry as the month progresses. I have seen years where we have little or no fire activity in July and then August goes wild. It’s all about the temperatures and thunderstorms. We will see.
That’s it for now...enjoy your dry summer weather!
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