Snow at least in the air Sunday, but accumulating for some of us

Portland to Longview in the “most likely” area, along with the Gorge
Published: Dec. 3, 2022 at 3:10 PM PST
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My shortest weather blog post ever since I’ve got about 10 minutes before I head out to the Seaside Festival of Trees this evening...emceeing that fun event.

It’s a cool and windy day, but at least we’ve picked up lots of sunshine!  That chilly east wind continues to blow through Sunday, although it’ll die down a bit.

That weather system in California will be sending moisture overhead tomorrow in the form of clouds & precipitation.  With the cold wind blowing, it appears it may be just cold enough for snow to fall all the way to the valley floor tomorrow morning through afternoon, mainly from the metro area north to Longview.  At this point temperatures look very “marginal” for sticking snow, just barely getting down to near freezing during the daytime tomorrow.  We have a very dry airmass, so precipitation falling into that airmass will cause temperatures to fall when it arrives. We may be 38 at 7am tomorrow, but down to 33 at noon. Just an example of that “evaporative cooling”. Soundings from models all think the column of air overhead will support snow for at least a few hours late morning through the afternoon. Just about all models are producing at least SOME sticking snow tomorrow. The contour shown here is our GRAF model.


One big thing I notice on models today is that some produce a band of heavier precipitation north of us tomorrow afternoon...but what if that happens directly over the cold air in the metro area? That would be more than 1/2″ snow. But for now we’ll go conservative with the forecast. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation.  It’s possible we just have some flurries at times and that’s it, but there’s a great enough threat for sticking snow that we’ll call Sunday a “First Alert Weather Day”. Maybe that’s more of a “Stay Aware/Alert Sunday If You Have Driving Plans Day”.  Because of the falling precipitation cooling the air, we’ll sit in the mid-30s all day!


  • Up to ½” could fall in spots around the metro area or areas north. We’re thinking most roads will stay clear assuming the snow really is that light and temperatures remain above freezing.
  • With colder weather in the Gorge, 1-3″ is more likely there with some snow on I-84 throughout the day.  Not a big snowstorm for them, but enough to cause a few issues on the freeway.
  • Whatever falls tomorrow will be finished by evening and then we’ll be mainly dry Monday through Wednesday.

I’ll be back at work early afternoon Sunday...the anticipation builds!