Record-setting ‘heat’ still on track Friday, including 80+ at ocean beaches

Just a quick blog post this Thursday evening to let you know the forecast is still on track. I’ll try to keep it brief; although that’s always a problem for me.

SUMMARY

• Today was warm, 81 in Portland. We’ll add 6-10 degrees tomorrow. That puts us somewhere between 87 and 91 degrees for an afternoon high in the metro area. Yep, it’ll definitely be on the edge of “hot” from 3pm-6pm. An easterly breeze will temper that warmth a bit. Regardless, Portland will blow past it’s record high for the date of 82 degrees. There is a chance we reach the all-time April high temperature of 90 degrees tomorrow.
• There’s no need to worry about heat stroke or heat exhaustion, unless you are stuck inside a car with the windows up. It’s not like we have a 95-100 degree day on tap. Plus we start in the 40s and lower 50s. No one’s home will be “hot” tomorrow afternoon.
• Easterly wind pushes the very warm weather all the way onto the northern part of the Oregon coastline and Washington too. Tomorrow will be the one day in the 80s from about Pacific City northward.
• We drop about 10 degrees Saturday, which makes that day feel about like today. Ocean beaches drop back into the 50s!
• A major marine push of chilly ocean air surges inland Sunday; a very different day with highs in the 50s or lower 60s and cloudy skies most of the day. Quite refreshing!
• The only rain this weekend will be a few sprinkles or drizzly areas on Sunday. Much of the day will be dry in the lowlands

First, the numbers recently. One week ago most of us were looking for anything above 60 degrees. How things have changed these past two days!

Notice our “first 80″ seems about on schedule. Also notice the last 10 years we’ve been seeing that first 80 degree day a bit earlier than average

Of course the big upper level ridge is overhead right now, just as forecast over the past week. I’ve mentioned this in the past, but these warm weather/heat wave events are very well forecast by models.

By Sunday the ridge has weakened a bit and a cold upper-level trough is approaching. At this point a cold front is passing by at the surface too (midday Sunday)

Then that trough “cuts off” well to our south later Monday through Wednesday. This takes most of the showers south of us early-mid week. So we aren’t heading directly back into a cold/showery pattern. This setup on Tuesday can give us some warm and partly cloudy weather. If that low gets any closer we can get showers or thundershowers coming in from the east or southeast

We are all set tomorrow for record setting warm weather. The Salem sounding was +14.6 degrees at 850mb (5,000′) this afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon models are forecasting a near record high (for April) around +18 to +19. Here’s the GEM model for tomorrow at 5pm

The record for April is +20 in the Salem sounding record back to 1950. So we’re headed into the upper 80s or even 90. So could we break the April record high of 90 degrees in Portland? Possibly. We will see. The wind situation is critical for the coastline tomorrow. Anyone that keeps easterly wind through early afternoon will see temps jump into the 80s. Our GRAF model looks like this at 5pm. Wind arrows are surface wind (red = offshore, blue = onshore)

Then by Saturday afternoon a westerly wind is keeping the coastline in the 50s, and chilly marine air is pouring through the Coast Range gaps. We should be 6-10 degrees cooler in the valleys Saturday; similar to today.

The BIG change happens Saturday night. A major surge of marine air + cooling atmosphere overhead means we head back into spring. The cloud cover will stretch all the way up to 6,000′! That thick of a marine layer won’t go anywhere, and a mammoth west wind is blowing out at Hood River, The Dalles, and Biggs. Expect gusts 40-55 mph out there; great mileage if you are driving I-84 to Pendleton Sunday. Portland will be 30 degrees cooler Sunday than Friday. Although other than spots of drizzle, it’s not very wet.

So there’s something for everyone the next 3 days...

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