PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) - Ahead of the holidays, we're getting a clearer picture of the future of COVID-19 in Oregon.

A new forecast from OHSU is cautiously optimistic that we can get through this season without another surge in cases, but we're not in the clear just yet.

While we're still in a pandemic, Szami Simisack is grateful this holiday season we have COVID-19 vaccines.

"I'm vaccinated so I'm spending it with people who also are. I feel like if more people got vaccinated there would be even less to worry about and I'm glad our vaccinations are good enough in general that Thanksgiving can happen at all this year," Simisack said.

Others said they're not concerned about COVID-19 this time of year.

"I think we're doing pretty well I'm not worried about Thanksgiving really. Getting together in a small group and planning on enjoying my family," Lori Kangus said.

Unlike 2020, Peter Graven, the Director of Advanced Analytics at OHSU, said he's not expecting a spike in cases through the end of the year.

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Image: KPTV

"We're closely measuring our total immunity which includes the people vaccinated and the percent of people we think were previously infected. That rate is up to 81% now which is a pretty high level and enough that will likely make it difficult for a surge to occur," Graven said.

While we're not out of the woods yet, he said we're on our way there.

"Oregon's on a little different path because our surge happened earlier. We were peaking in September then coming down since," Graven said.

With the holidays right around the corner, Graven said as long as you're protecting yourself you can rest a little easier with your friends and family this year.

"This year we see that people's plans to travel and go to gatherings have increased substantially. I think we have the immunity levels that can handle that if we're being careful," Graven said. "Unvaccinated people in particular are not safe right now in gatherings of people. If you're indoors and unvaccinated, if there's any delta variant going around, there's a very good chance you could get it."

Graven said in order to keep the rate of immunity up, Oregonians need to do their part and get their booster shot as soon as they're eligible. That means six months after your last dose if you got Pfizer or Moderna and two months after your shot if you got the Johnson and Johnson vaccine.

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