The new Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast released Wednesday contained welcome news for state taxpayers: the annual kicker looks like it will be the most it has ever been.

SALEM, OR (KPTV) – The new Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast released Wednesday contained welcome news for state taxpayers: the annual kicker looks like it will be the most it has ever been.

In the forecast, which is published four times a year, the executive summary started with a short, positive sentence: “The economic outlook remains bright.” For Oregon’s economic outlook, it could be as bright as $1.9 billion in personal income tax kicker credit for returns filed for tax year 2021. The forecast states “The median taxpayer can expect to receive a credit of $420, while the average is estimated to be $850.”

A breakdown of projected individual kicker amounts from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis is below:

Under state law, the kicker tax sends money back to taxpayers whenever personal income tax revenues come in at least 2% above initial projections during a 2-year budget cycle. The kicker has been an element of Oregon state taxes for decades.

The forecast released Wednesday echoes the one published in May, which also predicted a historic kicker. But the new forecast puts the kicker much higher than the one reported in May – half a billion dollars more. The next forecast will be released at the end of the year.

Gov. Kate Brown released a statement on the forecast, which said in part that it is “another sign that Oregon’s economy is healthy, strong, and on the path for a rapid recovery. This is welcome news at a time that Oregonians continue to face immense challenges: from wildfire recovery to extreme drought to our worst surge of cases and hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

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