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Friday, July 30th, 12:30 P.M. 

After a warm start to the day, temps will soar close to 100° in the Portland metro area this afternoon/early evening. We are keeping an eye on some clouds and showers over the Cascades this afternoon. I can't rule out the chance for a brief shower or thunderstorm in the metro area or central valley this afternoon and evening.

High pressure will slowly back off over the weekend, but we will still have a southerly wind overhead. Thin smoke and high elevation clouds will be possible at times, and isolated storms could fire up during the afternoons & evenings along the Cascades and east of the mountains. Highs should trend back into mid 90s to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure will continue to inch away from the Pacific Northwest next week, resulting in cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will slowly trend back down into the 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. 

  • Posted

I’ve changed the format for the weekend…come back to this same link regularly throughout each day for quick updates as we go through the rest of this incredible heat wave.  Newest information FIRST. Remember you can follow me on Twitter: @marknelsenKPTV and Facebook @marknelsenweather

9pm

SLIGHTLY HOTTER MONDAY, THEN A DRAMATIC & WINDY EVENING COOLDOWN

Alright folks, we’ve got Portland’s warmest (hottest) night on record ahead, then slightly hotter tomorrow. Take a look at the all-time records set today. Pretty much every spot west of the Cascades in SW Washington and NW Oregon saw the hottest temp on record. Longview and Hood River numbers come in at a later time

Portland’s downtown observing location recorded a 110, which is also an all-time record. Those go back to 1874!

What’s ahead?

  1. Calm areas drop into the mid-upper 70s tonight. Windy spots only drop to 80-85 degree range…as if we’re in Arizona
  2. All model data tells us that tomorrow should be hotter than today, which is hard to believe. But it’s going to happen
  3. 850mb temps right now are around +28 to +29, and they go up to a record-breaking +31 to +32. This has never been seen in our area. Easterly flow INCREASES through mid afternoon Monday overhead, skies stay sunny. This all says several degrees of warming. I’ll stick with 114 for a high. That’ll be astounding if someone in the metro area gets within 2-3 degrees of Oregon’s all-time high (119 – Pendleton).
  4. Onshore flow sweeps up the coastline overnight = heatwave over. Then that cool air surges into the central/south Willamette Valley after noon. This should make for a cooler day south of the metro area. “Only” 95-105 south of Wilsonville-McMinnville line. Longview will also see a cooler day due to the onshore flow after about 1pm.
  5. The onshore flow will be some of the strongest we’ve seen in our area. A very shallow layer of chilly marine air surging inland trapped under a strong inversion (hot air overhead). Gusts 30-40 mph are possible 3-6pm from Sheridan to West Salem and north to Dayton. Yes, there could be a 40 degree drop from early afternoon to sunset for many of us! The cooler air arrives after 6pm in the Portland metro area, dropping us from 110+ to mid-70s by 11pm. It’s going to feel amazing…

Take a look at the WRF-GFS 5pm temperatures…112+ over a good chunk of the metro area Monday afternoon

Notice at 3pm we’ve got westerly wind beginning to pour into the central Willamette Valley. Salem is beginning to cool. Hot east/southeast wind from Longview down into the metro area

Then at 6pm things have turned VERY windy. Forecasting 8 millibars pressure difference between Lincoln City and Wilsonville! West wind gusting over 40 mph from Sheridan to Amity. Hot east wind still just barely going in the metro area. This is more of a “southwest push”; we’re not getting the real strong northwest wind coming up the Columbia River

Then at 9pm the southwesterly push has arrived in the metro area and hot east wind is gone. Gusts 20-30 mph will be ringing chimes in the southern half of the metro.

It will be a very shallow push, which means warm air overhead will mix down again Tuesday, just no extreme heat. We’ll like bounce back into the low-mid 90s Tuesday afternoon. Much better…

 

5pm:

112 in Portland today plus lots more all-time records

High temperatures come in every six hours from the regular official reporting stations and here they are

 

Lots of 112s, but that's also the current temperature at PDX. It's possible we go a degree higher...we'll see. Obviously that's a new all-time record for Portland, well above the previous 108 record (yesterday) and long-standing 107 degree record. But look at the valley! Salem just blew past the 120+ year old record, by 5 degrees!

 

Astoria tied the 101 degree record, plus Eugene & Vancouver set an all-time records. I'll have more with a detailed post about tomorrow and beyond by 8-9pm. The big message: 24 HOURS OF EXTREME HEAT STILL TO GO

 

3pm:

All-Time Record Heat Records Falling, But No Big Power Issues Yet

It's 111 at PDX, the hottest temperature many of us have ever felt, including me. The same temperature as Phoenix at this hour...though at least relative humidity has fallen to 16%...it's a dry heat. 3pm observations, notice all official stations are 108 to 111

All-time records have now fallen at PDX (again), Troutdale (again), Vancouver, Salem, and possibly Astoria where it hit at least 100. Eugene is only a couple degrees away. The Dalles at 114 is the highest I've seen at the airport sensor. The official record, I think it's downtown, is 115 degrees there.

Huge temperature variations continue along the coastline. Just a couple miles inland it can be 105 degrees, yet around 70-75 right ON the beaches. Live view from our Shilo Inns Seaside camera shows a westerly breeze on the sand, that tells me it's likely under 80 degrees in this spot. A lot of people. We've got two more hours of heating...typically. East wind has been blowing a few hours at PDX, and when that happens the temperature rise levels of a bit. That said, there's no reason it couldn't go up another 3-4 degrees. Hang on folks, we've still got 20-28 hours to go...depending on your location. I see just a thousand or so PGE customers out, that's no worse than yesterday. Fingers crossed...

 

Noon

Hot...PDX is just passing over the 100 degree mark this hour. Troutdale, where east wind has surfaced, jumped to 105...at noon.

 

Check out Astoria...97 with a light northeast wind. Hoquiam at 100 is an all-time high temperature record.

 

Farther south along the Oregon coast, the extreme heat is either on the beaches or just a couple of miles inland. Example: Pacific City...67 on the beach but 97 over in the estuary area

 

Easterly pressure gradients continue to rise through the Gorge and across the Cascades. That easterly flow continues through Monday morning. As easterly wind surfaces in more spots, expect temperature spikes, but humidity drops. It doesn't matter; either 102 and humid or 110 and very dry. It's blazing hot everywhere except the beaches. Even Government Camp has gone over 90 degrees this hour.

 

I see PDX officially dropped to 73 degrees last night, the 2nd warmest night on record and the warmest ever in June. 

 

 

10am

The heat is on big time this morning, as expected we are starting warmer and heating up much more quickly. Current temps

And regional temps

What grabs my attention right now:

  1. 850mb temp (about 4,000') over Salem was measured at +26.4 degrees (C) this morning. About 2 degrees below all-time record. Expected to rise to a record +30 by afternoon
  2. Overnight low was bad, but we did not set an all-time record in Portland. Down into the lower 70s
  3. Easterly gradient and breezes have developed as expected. Gusts 25-35 mph at Vista House, and wherever that wind surfaces temperatures are skyrocketing
  4. It's 100 (at two separate wx stations) in Yacolt...at 10:18am. Astounding...east wind has surfaced there.  I've got 95 at my home in the woods east of Corbett.  Easterly breeze here too.
  5. It's 92 already on the Long Beach Peninsula (Ocean Park). Blazing hot for some of you on the coastline the next 6 hours. Mainly north of Pacific City.
  6. PDX is 88 at 10am, already 6 degrees hotter than 10am Saturday

Hang on...it's going to be a rough day...

  • Posted

I've changed the format for today and Sunday...come back to this same link  regularly throughout the day for quick updates as we go through the rest of Saturday.  Newest information FIRST.  Remember you can follow me on Twitter: @marknelsenKPTV and Facebook @marknelsenweather

9pm Final Saturday Update

What a historic day! Portland (and probably Troutdale) broke all-time temperature records…reaching 108 and 109. The final numbers…

And for the region

What’s ahead? In general the forecast hasn’t changed at all. Two more scorching hot days (hotter than today), then a strong marine push Monday evening brings in 70 degree air by 8-10pm west of the Cascades…it’s going to feel glorious. But, of course we have more record-breaking heat first. Tomorrow will be the hottest day south of Portland, due to that marine air arriving Monday midday down there. I expect at least 5 degrees warming from Salem to Eugene tomorrow, setting some all-time records. And at the coastline there will likely be a period from Noon-3pm on the north coast when temperatures soar. Tomorrow will feature conditions I never thought I’d see west of the Cascades. Temperatures to 110 and higher, a dry easterly wind, and nary a cloud in the sky. And keep in mind we’re starting much warmer tomorrow! It’ll take most of the night to get down below 80 in the urban/suburban areas

This will probably break Portland’s all-time warm low temperature. These are bit trickier to do because the weather data is collected for the calendar day (midnight to midnight). If we have a hot spell that ends with a strong marine push in the evening (that will happen Monday)? The late day temperature (close to midnight) could end up being cooler than the warm morning low. I’ve seen it happen in the past. But tomorrow night will be even warmer than tonight so I’m confident we will set this record.

For tomorrow, all models continue to agree that we’ll jump another 3-6 degrees, so I’ve put our forecast high at 112. The new 00z WRF-GFS shows a classic thermal trough from about Medford to Astoria in the afternoon

Easterly wind, although not strong, should be more widespread, and it’ll be windy in the western Gorge tomorrow. I’ve been watering my plants/lawn furiously the past two days in anticipation of that.

Look at those 104 degree highs just about touching the northern coastline beaches…plus 112 or so in the northern Willamette Valley

Then assuming cooling southwest wind doesn’t arrive until 4pm or so Monday, maybe a notch or two warmer. The east and southeasterly flow is very strong through midday Monday overhead and 850mb temps are 31-32 over PDX!  But you see how close the cooler air is...just south of the metro

That’s it for now…I’ll be on TV at 10pm with lots more numbers.

 

7pm

Portland officially hit 108 today, hottest on record. More coming up by 9pm or so...dinnertime

5pm

It happened! PDX is reporting 107 degrees as the current temperature AND the high so far today.

That ties the all-time 107 degree record from 1981 and 1965. I’d say about 1/2 of the time when the high is also the current temp at PDX on a sunny summer day…we end up a degree warmer. Unless the NWS puts out a special statement (seems likely), we’ll know for sure around 7:20pm. It’s quite possible today will go down as the hottest day in Portland’s history. Remember the downtown station has not gone above 107 either and those records go back into the late 1800s.It’s possibly the 109 at Troutdale is an all-time record, looks like Vancouver is one degree short. A few thoughts

  1. Models nailed this, even better than we did. Even our “high” forecast of 106 has been exceeded. Models have been going more like 107-108 today. Sure enough, we’re doing a little better than Euro showed…which is disturbing for tomorrow.
  2. All models are forecasting between 3 and 6 degrees warming tomorrow as more of a widespread dry/hot easterly wind surfaces. That’s just unreal. Do the math and it’s obvious 110 is probably too low. Working on that now
  3. This has been an exceptional triumph of meteorological modeling. Models forecast all-time records being broken 5-7 days ahead of time.
  4. Power outages are beginning to pop up. About 3,500 PGE customers out

3pm

100 at PDX this hour, running 11 degrees above yesterday at 3pm. That puts us on track to hit our 106 degree forecast. Dewpoint is 67...very humid...yuck. Easterly (dry) wind beginning to surface in a few spots. Sure, it's drier, but hotter. Troutdale and Scappoose jumped to 105 at 3pm! 102 at Rhododendron just below Government Camp is amazing for 1,600' elevation. Heading toward max temps in the next 3 hours. Once drier air punches down into PDX, expect a temperature spike. Possibly the 107-108 models were forecasting was right. TODAY could be the day we set our all-time record. The drama...

Working on forecast right now and there's a problem on the north coastline. WRF-GFS pushes easterly flow all the way to beaches and slightly beyond from about Tillamook north tomorrow. 100+ temps may be a possibility just inland from the surf from Long Beach down to Pacific City tomorrow. Maybe Astoria WILL break the all time record you see in the previous post. More later...

 

 

 

Noon 

Looks like all is proceeding according to plan and no changes to forecast.  Rode my bike around 10-11 a.m.  Tolerable, but turning hot! 

Portland is 91 at noon; that's plus 10 from yesterday at the same time.

Does that mean we'll be 105?  Could be, but humidity is still high, dewpoint of 64...yuck.  That tells me the hot atmosphere overhead hasn't surfaced or "mixed out" yet.  At some point within the next five hours, some drier air from above should surface.  When that happens the temperature will spike, then relative humidity falls.  Notice Yacolt is already 95???  It won't matter by that time since we'll be above 100 degrees.  Some other temps around the region are about what I would expect.  

Portland only dropped to 70 last night!  A record for the day, 2nd warmest ever in June.  The other two warmest were during the 2015 heatwave.  Of course that means you just endured the warmest night in 6 years.  Even out here at home in a rural area I only had a low of 63...rare.

Right now pressure gradients around the region are light northerly, or very light easterly across the Cascades.  Wind is light east in the Gorge, but stronger easterlies are arriving on many ridges.  I see Middle Mountain in the Hood River Valley is blowing along with Larch Mtn. and Three Corner Rock Washington.  That's a sign the blistering hot easterly flow has begun overhead.

I haven't made the forecast yet, waiting to see what happens this afternoon with regard to raising tomorrow's all-time high temp forecast. Morning GRAF & ECMWF models are the same...forecasting well above 110 both tomorrow and Monday as that dry east wind surfaces both days

That's it for now.

  • Posted

9pm Thursday…

This is just a brief post because NOTHING has changed meteorologically with the weekend forecast. All the points from yesterday are still valid. Just a tweak here/there

HIGHLIGHTS

  • What will likely be the hottest heatwave on record in the Portland area (and much of northern OR/southern WA) arrives tomorrow and continues through Monday. And there’s a good chance we remain at/above 90 the rest of next work week.
  • Expect three 100+ days in Portland, and they may all be 105+
  • I’m very confident we’ll hit 106-108, and think 110 is quite possible for the first time here. Records go back to the late 1800s both at the airport and Downtown.
  • Humidity will be mostly reasonable…it sure won’t be “Bourbon Street Humid”, more like our typical heatwave humidity.
  • Overnight lows will likely end up warmest on record in Portland too. Low-mid 70s Sunday and Monday mornings. That means homes/apartments will remain dangerously warm with no chance to cool off. Typically we see reasonable overnight temps in our area.
  • The only place to cool off will be the coastline…more like 75-90 out there over the weekend. Most likely you won’t be alone if you want to play on the beaches. There’s a chance the far north coast makes it to 90 on Sunday…we’ll see.
  • I do not expect any sort of strong wind anywhere in the Northwest. BUT, some easterly wind will be felt over the metro area Sunday. Gusts 20-30 mph are possible. Enough to move an accidental fire along, but not enough to drop powerlines into trees.

I didn’t change any numbers for the weekend in today’s 7 Day Forecast, although we “overachieved” today with highs right around 90 in the metro area. I was thinking more like 86-87.

That boosts confidence in our extreme forecast numbers. Today’s forecast

850mb temperature forecasts remain the same (temp around 4,000′ overhead in Celsius). In fact, while making the forecast, I noticed both GFS & ECMWF ensemble averages matched through Sunday! +19 tomorrow, +25 Saturday, +29 Sunday (new record), +25-27 Monday PM. The only disagreement is over how quickly the upper-level low to our southwest Monday slides north offshore. Quicker movement Monday would lead to an earlier marine push = cooler high temps. Slower movement gives us another extreme day Monday. The most recent ECMWF ensemble average temps for Portland (near sea level) are just amazing.

We were a few degrees warmer than forecast today. As I mentioned last night, we see that with Euro surface forecast temps in the warm season. That’s why we’re going 96 for tomorrow. Since the numbers turn so extreme Saturday-Monday, I’ve stuck with these numbers instead of going higher. I couldn’t imagine forecasting 111-114 for Portland…so I didn’t.

Check out the fresh 00z IBM Graf model, which handles warm season temperatures well. 108 Saturday, then around 114-115 Sunday! Just like the other models.

I’ve haven’t noticed this model “over-forecasting” heat in the last two warm seasons. Part of the reason we’re seeing such extreme temps (other than sun, offshore flow, and hot airmass overhead) appears to be the surfacing of that very dry subsiding air below the upper ridge. Notice the dewpoint drop both weekend afternoons. Sunday that would be relative humidity in the teens. The icing on the cake is the easterly wind Sunday. The GRAF is forecasting east wind to surface throughout the metro area that day (but not so much Saturday). It’ll be a “dry” 110 degree heat as they say…

In case you are wondering, the coastline WILL be cooler through this event. This applies to the northern Oregon and southern Washington coast…take off 5-8 degrees for Lincoln City and Newport

A few more numbers for you this evening. Portland’s all-time warm low temps. These are from the airport. With such a hot airmass, plus a larger metro area, plus a warming climate, it’s fair to assume we’ll be warmer than this.

This is dangerous for medically fragile or elderly folks…if you know any, please check in on them regularly!

That’s it for now, I’ll be on-air and online through NEXT Friday, the 2nd. I was already scheduled to work this weekend which is convenient. Make sure you are following me on Facebook: @marknelsenweather and Twitter: @marknelsenKPTV. I will be updating those much more frequently than this blog. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

  • Posted

9:30pm Thursday...

It's been a busy week! I'm more regularly on the 4/5/6pm shows plus the 10/11. Not as much time for blogging on the weekdays so I'll make it brief tonight. But you can find me on TV of course!

We are in a classic gloomy weather pattern right now. Strong high pressure offshore at the surface and overhead is blocking storminess. But it's a "dirty ridge", meaning lots of clouds and a little bit of rain makes it over the top.

This pattern holds through Monday! I've seen this setup in the past; almost constantly gray skies west of the Cascades but not much rain. Head up into the Cascades, foothills, or Coast Range and things turn wet quickly. Check out the precipitation forecast through Sunday. It's a highly "orographic" rain pattern meaning that almost all the rain falls in these spots.

You want to find sunshine this weekend plus dry weather? Head east of Hood River in the Gorge or into central/north-central Oregon. No rain there.

So we have a big upper-level ridge offshore, and a deepening upper-level low over the center of North America

Here comes the polar express! Bitterly cold air is about to pour into the central/eastern USA east of the Rockies. This is a chunk of the coveted "Polar Vortex" spinning south into southern Canada. Looks like it's going to sit over there for quite a while.

Models are edging the cold air quite close to us Monday-Tuesday. Any closer and we'd be into a full-on arctic airmass. At this point it appears some of the cold air will be pouring into Eastern Washington/Oregon Tuesday. Cue the cold east wind through the Gorge Tuesday & beyond! We haven't seen much of that during this very mild winter.

How cold? Tough to tell right now (5-6 days out), but I think we at least have a "cold east wind period" on the way. That would be highs in the low-mid 40s in the metro area and widespread 20-28 degree lows. Add in a strong east wind = chilly! GFS is very cold again tonight, pushing -16 degree 850mb temps up against the east slopes of the Cascades and a -11 over us. It seems to be extra cold as we approach events, so I'm not sold on that. The WRF-GFS is ridiculously cold as well, that was a problem last winter. It'll warm as we get closer.

ECMWF is likely more reasonable; chilly, but not extreme for midweek. This evening's GEM model was a bit milder than this.

I'm noticing low dewpoints on all models, that would be a refreshing change to our current moist/mild regime.

BIG PICTURE

  • We have 4 more mainly gloomy days ahead...if you need sunshine and guaranteed dry, head east of the Cascades
  • A change to sunnier but cool weather should show up Tuesday and continue for at least a couple of days
  • Prepare for the strongest east wind event we've seen in the Gorge since around Christmas. It's been a relatively quiet east wind season. Looks like that'll change middle of next week.  Here's the Vista House peak wind gust chart for the past two months

  • A few model members are attempting to bring in moisture over that cold air sometime a week from now or beyond. I'll take a much closer look Sunday evening when I have more time, but something snow/ice-wise might be up for the 2nd half of next week...maybe.

Have a good weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

  • Posted

9pm Tuesday...

Christmas vacation so far has given us a mix of weather; from warm/mild rains to cool easterly wind. Some fog and freezing fog in spots too. In the central/eastern Gorge, you experienced the much desired "White Christmas". 1-6" fell from Cascade Locks to The Dalles and down into north-central Oregon. Now we've seen a few dry days. Portland is running near to a little below normal for rain this month. A good chunk of the region has been drier than average over the last two months; somewhat unexpected in a La Niña winter.

Most of the USA has been warmer than average this month; including the Pacific Northwest. This is our 3rd consecutive warm December.

We are approaching the "halfway point" of the Pacific Northwest storm season. That's November-February. It's been a disappointment so far if you're looking for lots of active weather from this "La Niña" winter. No lowland snow, no significant windstorms, flooding, tornadoes etc... We are in the coldest time of the year (by the averages) right now. It's always interesting to note the western USA is coolest when you would think it would be; lowest sun angle and shortest days. That's right now. Yet the coldest of winter is more like February 1st once you get into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. That's due to the continuing cold Canadian airmasses moving south and thick snow cover reflecting much of that increasing solar insolation.

It appears weather action will be picking up again over the next week; these 12 Days of Christmas will be turning quite wet! A mid-winter Pacific jet stream will be ushering a series of wet weather systems into the PACNW starting tomorrow. We still have a little cool air stuck in the Gorge. The layer of cold air isn't very thick and easterly gradient through the Gorge is weak. This may be just enough to bring very light snow (less than Christmas) tonight through midday tomorrow. A real "marginal" event though.

I see at least 6 separate cold/occluded fronts coming through the region tomorrow through Wednesday the 6th. You can see 4-5 of them moving quickly west to east in this loop of sea level pressure and precipitation type. That's now through next Monday.

In general we seem to be headed toward slightly colder systems after Sunday as upper-level heights lower next week. You see the cool/lower height anomaly max out the middle of next week, before the ECMWF ensemble average pushes heights up again about two weeks from now.

At this point I don't see any especially strong storms, although models have been waffling around each run with exact low placement and precipitation intensity. It's quite the message here...no significant gaps in the 24 hour precipitation from any of the ECMWF ensembles

I see quite an increase in mountain snowpack the first week of January. The ECMWF model thinks 20-40" is likely on Mt. Hood over the next week. Since snowpack is running a bit below average this is good news!

With almost constant onshore flow it'll be tough to get snow down to sea level over the next 10+ days. Notice almost no members of the ECMWF ensembles produce significant snow over Portland the next two weeks.

That's not to say we couldn't have something happen like what Puget Sound saw last week. A low pressure area and dynamic cold front brought heavy post-frontal precipitation overhead for a few hours, dropping sticking snow all the way to sea level. It didn't last long, and it warmed up in the hours following, but something quick/crazy like this could show up in the models just a few days ahead of time.

To wrap it up, my main points...

  • There's NO sign of a widespread lowland snow/ice event in the next 10+ days...January begins mild
  • It's also unlikely we'll see an "arctic blast" in the first 15 days of January. That refers to a setup with cold arctic air drops south on north or east wind, keeping high temps in the 20s west of the Cascades and lows down in single digits or teens. I don't see that in the cards.
  • Expect rain almost every day during the next week; some days will be wetter than others, but I can't find a totally dry day.
  • Keep a close eye on the forecast during this time; a wind storm or river flooding could show up in the forecast maps just 3-4 days ahead of time.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

  • Posted

December has been very mild and a bit drier than average. The mild weather is here to stay, likely through Christmas. Sorry kids, hard to find cold & snow in this weather pattern! But I think we'll be making up quite a bit of ground with respect to rain. A strong westerly jet and atmospheric river will arrive in the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Expect about 48 hours of moderate to heavy rain (depending on location) across NW Oregon and SW Washington from Saturday night through Monday evening. Notice the west/southwest flow at 500mb midday Sunday

Then by Tuesday a cold trough is pushing the whole system well east and south of us

Look at the precipitable water loop from Saturday through Monday; you can see the moisture plume moving into the region

Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) shows the situation very well. Strong wind overhead and copious moisture supply combines to create an "atmospheric river" aimed at the mouth of the Columbia River Sunday morning

How much rain? Each model is slightly different of course, but you get the idea...somewhere between 2-4" in the western valleys and 5-8" in the mountains!

This might be enough to produce minor river flooding on the usual suspect north coastal rivers: Wilson, Nehalem, Trask, & Willapa. Since we've been relatively dry with no recent flooding, my gut feeling is we won't see anything widespread in the western valleys. But we'll keep a close eye on it of course.

Beyond Monday, we're headed into a least a brief period of drier weather, chilly east wind, and even some sunshine Tuesday-Christmas Eve. You can see a bit of that precipitation gap in the ECMWF ensemble forecast

Notice temperatures cool off a bit on the ensembles too

But if you want snow? Very unlikely west of the Cascades. Possibly some sort of ice/snow transition around Christmas or beyond IN THE GORGE if that cold east wind is still blowing...maybe.

That 15 day ECMWF ensemble snow forecast now takes us to New Year's Eve. Wow, just no sign of snow/cold on any of the 51 members.

That's it for now, I'm out of time this evening. We've been busy the past few days (and this evening) implementing a graphics change. Nothing too dramatic, but changing all those fonts, banners, backgrounds, colors takes awhile...

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen