snow

Today was a slow weather day, after some excitement Sunday.  A strong cold front passed across the state yesterday, followed by quite a surge of southwest or westerly wind.  The peak gust of 45 mph at PDX was the highest of the season, which tells you how slow this winter has been weatherwise.  The “today” in the graphic refers to yesterday of course.

Wind Peak Gust PDX

Much stronger wind spread through the eastern Gorge and north-central & northeast Oregon.

Gorge Gusty Wind

Baker City reached near 60 at noon, then dropped into the 30s with a westerly gust to 67 mph…now that’s a real cold front!

Today’s forecast was a “bit off”.  Partly cloudy wasn’t too far off (really was mostly cloudy), but scattered showers popped up all day long and it wasn’t a dry day for some of us.  It has been appropriately noted with an “X” on the forecast report card.

In general we have another slow work week weather-wise.  Temperatures rise the next few days as a weak upper-level ridge moves overhead.  One weak system moves inland tomorrow evening, but we’ll be lucky to get anything more than a few sprinkles or a shower.  The next chance for real rain isn’t until Friday night or Saturday.  Beyond that time (first week or so of March) it should be a bit wetter, although not excessive.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble forecast gives a mean of 1.5″ through March 10th

ecmwf-ensemble-KUAO-indiv_qpf-2545600

I notice the GFS shows about 2″ during the same period.  Pretty typical early March showery weather.

Winter still appears to be done as mentioned in last Wednesday’s post.  There’s no sign of a significant cold spell or freeze in the next 10+ days.  A nice warm up again this Wednesday-Friday, then cooler for that first week of March

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-2502400

So I think the idea that “we’ll transition from winter to early spring weather” is still good for the next 10 days.  It’s also clear we’ll end up with a much drier than average February; probably ending up with less than 2″ for the month in Portland.  Each month since October (except January) has seen drier than normal conditions.

Rain PDX Last 10 Days

By the way, for you holdouts, the chance for snow goes down very quickly this time of year.  The chance for getting measurable snow in Portland; covering 80 years of data at PDX & NWS Forecast Office

LATE WINTER SNOW CHANCE PORTLAND

If you want ONE WHOLE INCH in the lowest elevations?  VERY tough to do from this point forward.  About as good a chance as getting measurable snow on Christmas!

Late Winter Snow Chance 1 or more PDX

Enjoy your (mostly) dry week!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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