A bit busy today so I’ll keep it simple…yes, rare for me.
Models continue to all show we’re entering a colder period next week. But how cold and do we get snow in the lowlands? We still don’t know.
As I approach a possible snowy forecast, I try to “eliminate” days I know I don’t have to worry about. Well, it’s obvious now we can forget about any lowland snow/cold for Saturday/Sunday. The GFS model has been very aggressive pushing cold arctic air down into the Pacific Northwest for many days but it has backed off time-wise, now waiting to bring in very cold air (sea level snow) Monday afternoon/evening next week. At one point it was looking cold/snowy either Saturday and/or Sunday. So your weekend is clear! Showers and temperatures in the 40s Friday through Sunday.
The last few runs of the “new and improved” GFS model continue to show a major blast of arctic air Monday evening, with most of NW Oregon frozen solid by Tuesday morning. A few inches of snow too as temperatures reach the teens. Yet the ECMWF model and, to a lesser extent, the Canadian, continue to advertise a much slower “seepage” of that cold air Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s far more common and our FOX12 7 Day Forecast will represent this idea.
Lots of foothill snow, or even West Hills snow, Monday/Tuesday, but nothing for the metro area (at this point). The flurries we have on there for Friday morning are for snow down around 1,000′ in northern Clark county. Maybe the hills above St. Helens/Scappoose and Vernonia as a cool weather system moves inland after nighttime cooling.
I’ll have a more detailed blog posting tomorrow and look beyond next Tuesday. What I’m very confident about is a huge snow event for the Cascades. Friday through Monday should feature almost continuous snow in the Cascades. After 10-15″ now through early Thursday, that second period will feature many feet of snow. It appears 3 to 4 feet of snow will fall at Government Camp and maybe up to 7 feet up around Timberline and Meadows by early next week! Crazy stuff; this MAY be the big snow of the winter.
Skibowl and Hoodoo just announced they will open Thursday and with additional snow Friday and beyond it’s safe to say just about all terrain at all resorts should be open by Sunday/Monday.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen