WRF-GFS 24hr Snow

A quick update since I’m on all six shows this evening, a little busy on-air!  You can find me there on FOX12 Plus (Ch. 13 or 49) until 10pm and then on FOX12 through 11pm.

00z models are all in except the ECMWF.  The biggest thing I see is that the CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE METRO AREA HAS GONE DOWN from this morning.

  1. GFS, GEM, NAM continue to show no snow in the lowlands.  No change there
  2. WRF-GFS has backed off on snow, that’s the big change this evening since it was the biggest proponent of metro-wide snowfall.

or_snow24.24.0000 (1)

This seems reasonable.  Little/no sticking snow in the lowest elevations, or at least not enough to affect our morning commute.

But up to 2″ heavy/wet snow around 1,000′ and above in West Hills, Chehalem Mtn, Mt. Scott etc…  Plus any of the foothill communities in east Clark, Multnomah, & Clackamas counties may see 2-6″ inches of snow from 4am-10am.  I’m thinking Battle Ground, Camas, Washougal, Corbett, Gresham, Sandy, Damascus, Estacada.  Then down to Mill City & Sweet Home.

3. HRRR and our RPM model keep showing at least a little snow but have backed off a bit too.  Here’s the HRRR, showing at least a half-inch across mainly areas east of I-5.

HRRR Snow Accumulation

So I’m comfortable telling you that FOR MUCH OF THE METRO AREA A BIG SNOWFALL IS UNLIKELY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

But tomorrow is the type of morning you want to wake up early, look out the window and check out the Good Day Oregon gang here on FOX12.  They’ll have all the latest.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Chief meteorologist

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