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7pm Tuesday...

Time is flying this warm season; our 7 Day Forecast takes us into the 2nd week of August.  September and fall will be here in no time.  After a cool start to July, we ended up just slightly warmer than average and very dry.  Of course the heat wave last week sealed the deal.

Two consecutive days at/above 100 degrees doesn’t happen very often here, last time was three years ago

By the way, in case you’ve wondered about how many 100 degree days we get compared to the past?  Salem has a great long-term record that goes back to the late 1800s. 100 was a rare visitor from 1900 to 1920 and again in the 1950s. It’s a bit more common now; averaging about 1.5 days each year since I was a kid.

July ended up very dry, only .05″ at PDX. The dry season started the third week of June with the “faucet” pretty much just shutting off at that time. Portland has seen less than .10″ since late June (the past six weeks). Compare that with the same six week period the past three years…

What’s ahead? More typical August weather the next 7+ days. For now we have a weak upper-level ridge overhead. That means no hot weather, but warmer than normal.

But a cool upper-level disturbance moves by Thursday, accompanied by a low-level cold front.

You can guess what this means… lots of clouds and a few light showers. It won’t be like spring (or fall) downpours. We’re talking really light stuff. For example the ECMWF model gives the metro area .05″ to .20″. Enough to wet the ground, but it won’t help your yard or garden

Notice very little rain falls south of Salem, east of the Cascade crest, or in the eastern Gorge. This is all about far NW Oregon and SW Washington.

By Friday the trough will have moved east and ridging takes over for the weekend = back to summer! Sunday…

If you are headed into the northern Oregon or southern Washington Cascades, expect showers during the daytime Thursday. Some chilly camping until the sun comes out Friday afternoon. Weekend camping should be just fine

Looking farther ahead, models are trying to bring a bit of a “downturn” a week from now. Not much rain shows up on the ECMWF ensembles for the next two weeks (through mid-month), but it’s not totally dry as we’ve seen the past few weeks.

There doesn’t seem to be any hint of a big heat wave either. The ensemble high/low temps from the same run show temperatures running near normal after the Sunday/Monday warm up.

To summarize:

We’ve got typical early-mid August weather on the way; no significant rain and temperatures near normal. Keep enjoying the summer of 2020!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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