wet

6pm Wednesday...

We've seen a few showers the past few days, quite a change from the 80s last weekend.  We ended up with three new temperature records from that warm spell.  A record high of 87 Saturday, then two record warm low temps (59 Saturday/Sunday mornings)

Mark Hot Heatwave So Far

Since Monday we've been under the influence of a cool upper-level low (a dip in the jet stream).  It has been sending waves of showers/clouds up over the Pacific Northwest.  Not so much rain yet, but I think that action will pick up tonight and Thursday.   Portland has picked up all of .20" so far this week but we'll at least double that in the next 24 hours.

It has been a very dry spring.  In Portland it's the 7th driest on record and our driest since 2013.  Some stats for spring so far...

MarkSpringExtraRainy

But it's only temporary, our springs in general have been turning a bit wetter over the long term.  Remember the soakings around 2008-2012?  You can see the gradual rise in Salem's longer weather history (compared to PDX)...

Capture

What's ahead?  A brief upper-level ridge moves overhead Friday, but then another cool trough drops in late Saturday/Sunday.  The ECMWF shows the cool low over us Monday.  Also notice a real warm ridge over the southern Rockies and Plains states.

ecmwf_wed

A third upper-level low will be dropping in a little over a week from now.  This is Friday the 22nd.  Just heading into Memorial Day Weekend.

ecmwf_friday22nd

So it's clear that we'll see normal to slightly below normal afternoon high temps the next 7-9 days, although that will be countered a bit by cloudy/mild nights.  We should make up at least some of that rain deficit, but probably not much.  The 10 day anomaly through Saturday the 23rd; a bit wetter than average, but not unsually wet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-west-qpf_anom_10day-0235200

To summarize

  • Lots of clouds/showers the next 7-10 days.
  • It won't be continuously wet though, in fact parts of next Tuesday/Wednesday may be dry
  • IF YOU NEED A DRY DAY, AIM FOR THIS FRIDAY OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
  • There's no sign of a significant warm/dry spell until at least Memorial Day Weekend

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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