I’ve got a quick update this evening on our incoming weather the next two days, I’ll be on-air on FOX12 Plus 8-10pm and then on FOX12 10-11:30pm
HIGHLIGHTS FOR PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA
- All quiet tonight and tomorrow morning, then light picks up tomorrow afternoon. Expect breezy southerly wind west of the Cascades. Maybe 25-35 mph gusts in the evening. A typical mid-November day.
- Tomorrow night and Friday morning rain turns heavy at times. We should pick up at least an inch of rain. Southerly wind gusts could reach 35-45 mph during this time. Not a big storm, but enough to drop a few limbs onto powerlines = a few power outages.
- Lots of showers & sun mix Friday afternoon through Saturday. Typical breezy southerly wind at 10-20 mph
A High Wind Watch is up for the Oregon and southern Washington coastline. In the Coast Range too. This is tomorrow night and early Friday.
Remember a WATCH means a weather event MIGHT be on the way, a WARNING says that event is imminent.
There are no watches/warnings/advisories for now in the interior valleys where about 85% of KPTV’s viewers live. At this point I’m thinking 35-45 mph gusts tomorrow night and early Friday is the best forecast.
A strong westerly jet stream is punching across the northern Pacific ocean right now. By tomorrow evening it’ll be at our doorstep. Check out the 220 mph windspeed!
All models agree that an area of low pressure (or two) will “spin up” underneath the “exit region” of this jet stream. That’s the northern edge where the wind slows down. But each model has it’s own idea where/when that happens and how deep the low pressure will be. Of course a deeper low is associated with stronger wind. Movement of the low is important too. Over the past three days SOME models were showing a very deep low pressure center traveling west to east just north of Portland, or up across Puget Sound. That could possibly give us a windstorm. But the screaming message this evening is that almost no models are giving us a significant wind storm. Take a look at the 30 ensemble member low pressure locations for 10am Friday. You get the idea. Some stronger, some weaker, some have the low going in SOUTH of Portland. In that case we wouldn’t get any sort of strong wind.
The latest operational ECMWF model gives us gusts 35-50 mph late tomorrow night, then Friday it’s back to showers/sunbreaks/breezy
In general what I’m seeing is not the setup for a windstorm, but lots of rain and some wind in spots. Maybe just a warmup for the storm season ahead.
The Cascades picked up around a foot of snow in the first storm of the season. Now we expect another 5-10″ at pass elevations and 20-30″ up above 5,000′. That’s tomorrow afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Maybe some pre-Thanksgiving skiing? We’ll see
That’s it for now, time for dinner. See you on TV!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen