snowy

6:30pm Monday…

As mentioned in last night’s post, a strong storm is headed for the California/Oregon border tomorrow afternoon.  Not much has changed and I’m in six evening newscasts tonight, so this will be a bit briefer.

Highlights

  • Low elevation sticking snow is very unlikely west of the Cascades north of Eugene tomorrow and tomorrow night.  That includes Longview, Vancouver, Portland, Salem etc…  No, it’s not going to snow & stick in Portland.
  • Weather will be uneventful the next few days in these areas (including metro) as well
  • Expect another 12-15″ snow in the Cascades before it dries out Thanksgiving morning.  Most of that falls Wednesday.
  • I-5 south of Roseburg to Redding could easily shut down tomorrow night and/or Wednesday, especially south of Ashland.  Plan accordingly!
  • Thanksgiving Weekend will be chilly, although not an “arctic blast”.  Highs 40-45 in the western lowlands and lows 20-25 degrees.

The “explosive cyclogenesis” is still forecast to occur off the Oregon coastline the next 24 hours.  That’s sometimes called “bombogenesis“, a “meteorological bomb”, or even a “bomb cyclone”.  The 18z ECMWF model takes a 1010 mb low down to 970 mb as it moves onto the coastline somewhere around Brookings.  That’s 40 millibars in less than 24 hours!  Luckily the track means most of the big wind is offshore and the southerly movement “takes away” from the southerly wind gusts over land.

As of early this evening, all models except the ECMWF totally dry us out within 24 hours north of Salem.  Even the new 18z ECMWF just gives us a few sprinkles tomorrow evening/night.  Thus it’s very unlikely the lowest elevations will see snow, even just in the air.  Notice the 10″ plus over Siskiyou Summit south of Ashland on I-5?  That’s going to cause plenty of trouble tomorrow evening and Wednesday

ECMWF Snow Accumulation Hourly

The rest of the forecast is easy…dry and chilly Thursday through Saturday.  Snow-covered areas east of the Cascades turn VERY cold.

See you tonight at 8pm/9pm on FOX12PLUS (usually channel 49 or 13), then 10pm/11pm on FOX12.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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