warm

We’ve settled into a warm summer weather pattern as models were predicting. The past 8 days Portland made it at least into the upper 70s, and now four consecutive days at/above 80 degrees…pool weather!

Anywhere south and east of Portland it was warmer today; Eugene hit 90 and most of central/eastern Oregon was around 90 or higher.

Portland hasn’t seen significant rain in over three weeks either…grasses are drying out finally.

A relatively strong marine push is underway this evening; a gusty northwest wind is blowing up the Columbia River bringing cooler marine air inland. There are two weak disturbances passing by in the upper atmosphere just north of us are helping that along. The result should be a cloudy start Friday and a cooler day. 84 in Portland today; more likely 76-78 tomorrow. You can see the low clouds forecast by the IBM’s GRAF model at 7am tomorrow

The marine layer should be at least 5,000′ thick tomorrow morning, and that passing upper-level disturbance will supply some lifting. Expect spots of drizzle or even a very brief light shower between 5-10am. Don’t leave anything outside tonight that won’t survive getting wet! But we’re talking REALLY light…a few drips

Beyond tomorrow, high pressure noses back into the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday evening, a hot upper-level ridge is just offshore with warm air extending back over the West Coast

But then by Wednesday the ridge offshore has “flattened” a bit, allowing cooler marine air to come inland once again. But upper-level heights are still above average (the warm colors), so there’s no return to cool and showery in the cards for next week.

The orientation and position of that upper-level ridge offshore brings up two thoughts:

  1. No offshore wind flow at the surface Saturday through the middle of next week = no extreme heat
  2. Upper-level temperatures don’t get crazy warm. Looks like the 850mb temps don’t go above 20 degrees. That’s warm enough for lower 90s with onshore flow in July, but not much warmer. I’d be surprised if PDX gets above 95 early next week.

Here’s our forecast for the next 7 days…not a heat wave, but toasty Sunday through Tuesday

I see good pool and “water play” weather this weekend and early next week, but again, we won’t be roasting in a big heat wave. Enjoy your weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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