June Rain

Today our weather returned to normal temperature-wise.  That’s follows 9 days of  a mid-summer weather pattern; temps mainly in the 80s & 90s.

High Temp Last 13 Days

Of course this means June is tracking very warm…

Month Climate Temps Calendar

and quite dry.  Only two days with measurable rain through the 18th, that could continue all the way through the 22nd or 23rd I suppose.

Month Climate Rain Calendar Saturday Start

But the last 10-12 days of June sure look cooler.  Or maybe more accurate…

Typical June Weather is On The Way

What’s changing?  More cloud cover and cooler temps is the general story.  For now we have higher than normal upper-level heights over the Pacific Northwest

ecmwf-namer-z500_anom-0859200

But quite a change Thursday as a cold trough of low pressure drops in.

ecmwf-namer-z500_anom-1032000

That’s followed by a 2nd pool of chilly air sitting just offshore or right over us much of next week, starting Tuesday.  These charts are from the ECMWF model for Tuesday and Friday NEXT week.

It’s not like we’re going to see endless days of rain and highs in the 60s, but expect noticeably cooler weather next week with some showers at times.

Two Big Questions

  1. Will it be dry this weekend?  YES, FOR MOST OF US.  We’ll be in-between that cold system Thursday and the one early next week.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NICER THAN SUNDAY.
  2. How much rain could we see in the next 10 days?  Probably not enough for you to shut off irrigation for crops and lawns.  Maybe enough to back off on your garden veggie watering around the middle/end of next week.  Until that time (through this weekend), I don’t see any significant rain.

Here’s the 10 day total rain forecast from the operational runs of the ECMWF & GFS models.  Both imply 1/2″ or less in most lowland areas (where most of us live west of the Cascades).  Of course more in the mountains.

Checking the ECMWF ensembles for Salem (middle of the Willamette Valley), the average is around 1/2″ as well.  That’s in green; bottom half of chart.  Notice a few members (top half of chart) are wetter, but some are drier…thus the “average”.

ecmwf-KSLE-indiv_qpf-0859200

To Summarize

  • The next 7-10 days will be near normal to cooler than normal for late June
  • Expect some showers at times, mainly AFTER next Monday
  • No sign of hot weather returning through the end of June

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Recommended for you

Load comments