New polling shows a tight Oregon governor’s race

PORTLAND Ore. (KPTV) - Republican Christine Drazan holds a razor-thin lead over incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in a rematch of Oregon’s 2022 gubernatorial contest, according to a newly released poll.

“I feel concerned that the race is this tight,” said Multnomah County Voter Sophie Caesar.

“I think it’s indicative of a climate where people are feeling frustrated,” said Multnomah County Voter Amaranth Wilson.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted by DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting, found Drazan leading Kotek by one percentage point among likely voters ahead of the November election.

“The results in some ways should not be that surprising to folks,” John Horvick of DHM Research said during an interview with FOX 12 Oregon on Wednesday. “It’s a closely contested election. We have the same two candidates we had four years ago, Governor Tina Kotek, a Democrat, and she is running against Christine Drazan, the Republican.”

In their 2022 matchup, Kotek defeated Drazan by roughly three percentage points. While that contest featured prominent unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson, Horvick noted that this year’s political landscape is defined by shifting voter priorities, with third-party candidate Brett Smith also on the ballot.

According to Horvick, the primary driver for voters has shifted from crime and homelessness in 2022 to broader economic concerns today.

“Voters are much more focused on things about affordability and cost of living,” Horvick said. “Four years ago, Tina Kotek ran on a platform on building housing, making improvements to education, making improvements to behavioral health treatment in the state. And when we ask Oregonians, they would tell us that they haven’t seen progress on that.”

For some voters FOX 12 spoke with, addressing homelessness and public safety remains the top priority.

“I’d like to know what Kotek is going to do, what are you going to do,” said Wilson.

For others, key policies and alignment with the Trump administration are important factors in how they plan to cast their ballots.

“I think people have been criticizing Trump more in his second term and I think that may carry over to consequences for Drazan that maybe originally weren’t anticipated,” said Caesar.

“I think that she agrees with a lot of Trump’s values and I think that she is pretty much a Trump supporter so that alone would make me not want to vote for her,” said Clackamas County Voter Paris Nomie.

The survey highlighted key vulnerabilities for Kotek, particularly in the Portland metropolitan area. While Kotek still leads in the populous region, Horvick said her margins are narrower than typically required for a statewide Democratic victory, with moderate Democrats and left-leaning independent voters expressing frustration over the state’s direction.

Among likely voters, 8% initially reported being undecided. When prompted to choose between the two major-party candidates, more undecided respondents leaned toward Kotek.

Recent independent polling shows a consistently tight race. A survey earlier this month by DHM and Grow Oregon showed Drazan up by two points, while an earlier summer poll had Drazan leading by four points.

This year, voters are bracing for another tight race.

“I think and I hope that it will be the same way, we will pull out in the end and Kotek will win,” said Nomie.

“What I do know is this is not working, Portland is not working, the city is in squaller, people are living on the street,” said Wilson. “I’m not saying either candidate is going to fix that but something needs to change.”

Despite Drazan’s early advantage, Horvick cautioned that late-deciding voters often return to party lines as Election Day nears, making voter turnout critical across the state.