Pollster breaks down key Oregon, Washington midterm races

PORTLAND Ore. (KPTV) - With Election Day arriving Tuesday, voters across the Pacific Northwest are watching closely as key races take shape in Oregon and Washington.

John Horvick of DHM Research joined FOX 12 on Monday to discuss the latest polling numbers, early voting trends, and what to watch when initial results are reported.

Horvick said national polls have generally leaned toward Democrats in key Senate contests, though most results remain within the margin of error. Historically, the party in the White House faces headwinds during midterm elections, and Horvick noted that national trends suggest Republicans could still see strong showings if surveys contain even modest polling errors.

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Locally, the Oregon governor’s race between Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan remains highly competitive. While earlier polling showed tight margins, Horvick noted that public polling data in Oregon has been limited in the final weeks of the campaign.

According to Horvick, the debate over state leadership centers largely on everyday economic concerns.

“Right now, it’s really about affordability and sort of a sense that government’s not functioning well,” Horvick said, pointing to voter frustration around housing costs, taxes, and government performance.

In Southwest Washington, the 3rd Congressional District race between Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican John Braun has drawn significant national funding and attention. Horvick said national political sentiment may have a stronger influence on congressional races than on state-level contests.

Horvick also cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from early ballot returns. While initial drop counts in Oregon and Washington will be released at 8 p.m. Tuesday, ballots postmarked by Election Day will continue to arrive and be tallied throughout the week.